The increase in energy consumption in the transport sector within the last years was mainly driven by the growth of road transport. This development implies serious ecological and political problems:
Increasing emissions of exhaust gases and greenhouse gases, dependence on fossil energy carriers, dependence on imports of energy carriers,
The objective of this project is to analyse market potentials in the use of efficient, conventional and alternative powertrain systems for commercial vehicles.
What are the potentials of natural gas-, hybrid- and electric vehicles in this field? Which alternative powertrain technologies are able to economically compete with established, conventional options in the timeframe 2010 – 2050? Which options can improve the energetic and environmental performance of heavy duty road transport?
The following questions shall be answered within the project:
- In which fields can natural gas-, hybrid-, electric- and fuel cell vehicles economically compete on the market?
- Through which political and economic framework conditions can those types of vehicles be promoted? Which market shares are possible under these different framework conditions up to 2050?
- How do those market shares affect the overall vehicle stock and the energy consumption of the sector?
- Which role can natural gas, biofuels and electricity play as energy carriers for road transport in the future?
- What are the effects on the energy carrier mix?
The methodological approach mainly consists of a technical and energy economic analysis of the major fields of commercial road transport, where conventional and alternative powertrain systems are analysed and their efficiency is determined. Furthermore greenhouse gas emissions and embodied energy are calculated through a life-cycle analysis. For an economic assessment a cost comparison is performed considering all relevant types of costs.
The results of all analyses are gathered to carry out an overall assessment of all feasible powertrain options. Through this assessment the specific potentials of all systems are identified. Moreover the results are used to generate scenarios of market penetrations. These scenarios can be used to analyse the effects of changing political framework conditions.
Based on these results the cost efficient strategies to promote efficient and ecological powertrain systems for commercial road transport from a macroeconomic perspective can be identified and recommendations for their political promotion can be given.