Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020-2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables)

(TENDERS №ENER/C2/2014-641, Coordinator: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems & Innovation Research)
Contact:Michael Hartner
Project Team:Eric Aichinger, Sebastian Forthuber, Sara Fritz, Michael Hartner, Albert Hiesl, Marcus Hummel, Lukas Kranzl, Lukas Liebmann, Andreas Müller, Gustav Resch
Feb 2014
18 months
Consortium:Observ'ER Observatory of renewable energies
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI)
Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme
Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES)
TEP Energy GmbH

Mapping EU heat supply

Heating and cooling (H/C) account for the major share of final energy demand in industry, services and the residential sector in the EU. It therefore plays a central role in achieving energy policy goals like climate change mitigation, security of supply and competitiveness. At the same time, the official statistics only provide an incomplete picture regarding H/C: Data is often scattered, incomplete or not available.

This project which was coordinated by Fraunhofer ISI aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the EU’s H/C sector as well as possible future trajectories until 2020 and 2030.

Main objectives

1. End-use energy balances for H/C for 2012: A consistent end-use energy balance is compiled for Europe’s H/C sector. The results are disaggregated by country, sector, sub-sector, building type, energy carrier end-use and temperature level.
2. Current state of H/C technologies: This work package gathers information on the current stock of H/C technologies in European countries. It distinguishes technologies in buildings, industry and district heating and assesses the current performance of H/C technologies.
3. Scenarios up until 2030: Using the bottom-up models FORECAST, Invert/EE-Lab and Green-X, this work package develops scenarios for the evolution of the H/C sector up until 2030. The results are analysed with regard to final, useful and primary energy, CO₂ emissions, import shares, induced investments and RES-H/C shares.
4. Analysis of economic impacts up until 2030: The macro-economic model ASTRA is then used to assess the economic impacts of the different scenario results in terms of induced employment and economic growth.
5. Analysis of barriers, best practices and policies: Based on the existing literature and expert interviews, we analyse and discuss the barriers, best practices and policies for the increased use of RES in the individual market segments of the H/C sector.

For publications and available data please see downloads below or


Authors of WP report (2016): Mapping and analyses for the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel development (fossil/renewables). Fraunhofer ISI, Frauhofer ISE, TU Wien, TEP Energy, IREES, Observer
Project summary and reports from WP1 to WP5:
PDF File
(18524 kb)
Datasets on heating and cooling in EU28 + CH,NO,IS from 2012 until 2030:
PDF File
(75989 kb)
last update downloads: 2017-03-24

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