Fraunhofer ISI in cooperation with TU Wien, Energy Economics Group (EEG) will conduct a qualitative and quantitative model-based long-term oriented RES policy assessment for the EU MENA region on behalf of dii (Desertec Industrial Initiative).
The overall objective of the modeling work applied in this project is to provide a realistic picture of the diffusion pathway of RES technologies in MENA countries between 2020 and 2050 and to provide scenario results containing geographic information on the utilized RES-E potentials. The second focal point of the study lies on the regulatory framework and the support schemes for RES-E in MENA and Europe regarding the timeframe after 2020. Key objective is a qualitative assessment of the compatibility of the expected future regulatory regimes and the identification of critical issues which will need to be addressed in the context of a future RES-electricity transfer from MENA to Europe. Finally, linking the qualitative analysis to the modeling results, the costs implied by reaching the 2030 interim deployment under different RES-E support schemes will be reflected against the case study analysis, which investigates the compatibility of different support schemes for the three countries Algeria, Egypt and Morocco.
The project will combine the detailed modeling of the RES diffusion in EU and MENA with the analysis of the respective support framework needed to assist the Dii DP 2050 assessment. This work builds on the comprehensive modeling work done in the frame of the project “Model based analysis of the impact of desert power on the EUMENA electricity markets” conducted by Fraunhofer ISI to assist the development of the Dessert Power 2050 (DP 2050) by deriving a target picture of the optimal power plant portfolio and infrastructures by 2050. From a modeling perspective it comprises the use of two specialized tools within complementary tasks but with a strong level of interdependency. The PowerACE model will provide a techno-economic assessment from a power system perspective, calculating the development of the entire electricity system in the EU and MENA region. Complementary to this, TU Wien will make use of their Green-X model in order to bring in the policy perspective, deriving a RES trajectory that is in line with the targeted RES volumes according to the Desert Power 2050 scenario.
Thus, TU Wien’s Green-X model will be used to perform the overall RES policy evaluation for the electricity sector in the long-term, up to 2050. More precisely, it will express future RES deployment by technology / by country as well as corresponding costs & expenditures (generation cost, support and capital expenditures) in a dynamic context for six different RES policy pathways for the whole EU MENA region.