New Trends in Energy Demand Modelling

  • Sep 2020Sep 2022

Project description

The EU 2050 long-term strategy develops scenarios for a carbon-neutral EU in 2050, aiming at the full deployment of low-carbon technologies or assuming greater climate awareness among EU citizens, reflected in lifestyle changes, consumer choices, and a more circular economy. While these scenarios integrate societal trends, further progress is needed to improve the empirical basis for such new societal trends and their representation in models. New societal trends have potentially large (increasing or decreasing) impacts on energy consumption and could lead to shifts in demand across sectors. The novelty of the project stems from three perspectives: (i) A thematic perspective that identifies and quantifies how new societal trends affect energy demand, using trend development pathways. (ii) A methodological perspective that combines qualitative (foresight methods) with quantitative, cross-sector modeling and explores how energy demand models can be improved to represent emerging trends. (iii) Finally, a data perspective that improves the empirical basis for modeling the impact of new societal trends by leveraging new data sources (e.g., smart meter data) and empirical data (e.g., on behavior change).

Last updated: 20 Mar 2022