Final calculated energy demand for space heating, cooling, appliances, ventilation, refrigeration and lighting was 43 TWh in the European shopping centre building stock in 2012. The future energy demand depends on the quality of renovation, the replacement rate of building technologies, the rate of new shopping centre construction and the market saturation in the respective country.
All emerging markets have a growing energy demand in the status quo scenario. For instance, in the formerly socialist Central Eastern European countries the shopping centre era began after 1990 therefore the shopping centre stock is young compared to many western European countries. However, if energy efficiency measures are implemented and/or the retail market changes due to expanding web shops, the energy demand in these markets will reduce as it was shown in the other three scenarios exploring the effect of higher energy efficiency and migration of sales online. The main conclusions are highlighted below:
Conclusion 1: Lighting technologies have the highest replacement rate in the shopping centres. Moreover, the energy demand for lighting makes up the highest share on the total final energy demand. The energy demand for lighting in the total shopping centre building stock in EU28 and Norway can be reduced by 59% from 2012 to 2030 in the status quo scenario and by 62% in the second scenario which includes policies for more ambitious energy efficiency measures and control systems. Improvements and new innovative technologies (LED, control systems) have a high potential to reduce energy demand in the shopping centres.
Conclusion 2: Electricity is the main energy carrier covering energy demand in the European shopping centres. Thus, reduction of the greenhouse gasses is highly dependent on the electricity sector and its decarbonisation.
Conclusion 3: In the transition economies and especially in Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia there is an exploitable untapped potential for the new building development. The share of the new buildings built between 2012 and 2030 on the total building floor area in 2030 is above 50%. Consequently, the total energy demand in the shopping centre building stock is growing until 2030 in these markets. There is a need for new and innovative energy efficiency technologies or new green business models. Building codes and certification schemes to enhancing green branding could play an important role in encouraging investment in energy efficiency measures for the shopping centres.
Conclusion 4: Policy makers can support and guide shopping centres to reduce their energy demand through clear and stable policies which provide long term drivers to increase energy efficiency. Policies addressing shopping centres must pay attention to their complex physical structure of shopping centres and multiple stakeholders (owners, tenants, customers and administration) involved in decision making processes. Policies addressing shopping centres should build on existing and efficient voluntary certification schemes such as BREEAM certification and green leases. Moreover, an in-depth, ex-ante evaluation of the impact of any shopping centre policy on the numerous stakeholders should be conducted to improve understanding and aid development of successful approaches. A position paper on standardisation providing recommendations to improve European policy can be found in deliverable 5.10 of the present project.